基于农业发展方式转变的江苏省农业产业升级发展研究

[目的]从定量方面对江苏省农业发展方式转变对农业产业升级贡献结果进行研究,以准确把握江苏省农业发展方式转变进程。[方法]构建基于农业发展方式转变的江苏省农业产业升级评价指标体系,以2007—2016年江苏省10年的年度数据为研究对象,采用熵值法计算各年度每个指标权重以及各准则层和农业发展方式转变综合得分值。[结果](1) 2007—2016年江苏省农业产业方式转变取得了一定成效,处于良好的发展势头;(2) 2012和2014年江苏省基于农业发展方式转变的农业产业升级增长最快,2016年出现大幅下跌,导致该下跌的原因是同时期农业集约型效益的大幅下降;(3)集约型升级和高效型升级对基于农业发展方式转变的江苏省农业产业升级带动作用最大;结构合理型升级发展滞后。[结论]江苏省基于农业发展方式转变的农业产业升级还处于不断探索阶段,加速农业产业结构升级对于江苏省加快转变农业发展方式尤为重要。     

An empirical analysis of night-time light data based on the gravity model

This article aims to explore the feasibility of applying night-time light data to the study of trade. Based on 61 countries’ panel data from 1995 to 2012, this research used night-time light data, as the substitute for GDP, to study trade development based on the traditional gravity model. The method of ordinary least squares, Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood and two-stage least squares were used. The results show that geographical distance, country borders and regional agreements have a significant effect on China’s trade with other Belt and Road countries, which verifies the validity of trade research based on night-time light data analysis. Additionally, comparisons reveal the trade trends predicted by night-time light data from 1996 to 2012, were highly consistent with the actual data. This article stands as the first study to apply night-time light data to the gravity model in the research on trade between China and other Belt and Road countries. Breaking new ground, this research uses night-time light data as an economic indicator to study trade, in combination with micro foundations and the latest findings of the gravity model. Thus, this article deepens the understanding of trade analysis and contributing to the field of related researches.     

Evolution of FDI flows in the global network: 2003–2012

As one type of international capital flow, FDI maintains its important role in globalization. This article attempts to investigate the evolution of the FDI flows from a network perspective. Based on the bilateral FDI flows data between countries from 2003 to 2012, we construct the global FDI flows network for each year and thus quantify network measures (such as flow volumes and connections); further by analysing the tendency and changes of these network measures during the past 10 years, we delineate the features and dynamics of the FDI flows in the global network. We have the following findings: (a) the flows network changes during and after the crisis, i.e. flow volume fallen down and recovered, and flow connection restructured with more diversity; (b) the global FDI flows network is getting more loosely connected; (c) individual countries vary in different patterns.     

“一带一路”沿线国家与中国的贸易发展状况研究

研究目标：探索构建灯光数据对贸易研究的可行性。研究方法：运用1995~2012年“一带一路”沿线国家的面板数据，采用普通最小二乘法、泊松伪最大似然估计方法及工具变量法，以灯光数据作为GDP的替代量，通过传统引力模型搭建桥梁。研究发现：地理距离、边界及区域协定对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间贸易的显著影响表明灯光数据对贸易研究的有效性；同时，对1996~2012年贸易趋势的预测与实际贸易的对比结果显示，以灯光数据预测的“一带一路”贸易趋势与实际贸易基本吻合。研究创新：首次将夜间灯光数据应用于引力模型研究，对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的贸易发展状况进行分析。研究价值：开拓夜间灯光数据研究贸易的先河，并结合引力模型的最新发展及微观基础思考拓展性的相关研究。     

我国秸秆综合利用面临形势与对策研究

[目的]为加快推动秸秆资源化利用,促进农业绿色发展。[方法]文章在系统梳理我国秸秆综合利用政策文件、相关文献的基础上,全面分析了我国农作物秸秆禁烧和综合利用的发展阶段,提出了秸秆利用面临的形势和存在的主要问题。[结果]我国秸秆综合利用从时间序列上,可以划分为起步阶段、强力推进阶段和攻坚阶段。城镇化的快速推进、农村能源结构的调整、农业供给侧结构性改革的实施、农作物季节矛盾突出等,成为秸秆综合利用面临的新形势、新挑战。当前推进秸秆综合利用存在四大方面问题:秸秆还田成本较高,区域技术规范和技术适宜性缺乏;受"成本地板"和"价格天花板"双重挤压,秸秆产业化利用发展困难;秸秆收储运成本高,技术装备水平低,用地、运输问题尚未解决,收储运体系建设不健全;关键性政策工具尚未破题,缺乏普惠性、针对性的资金扶持。[结论]针对形势与问题,提出了推进秸秆资源化利用的4条对策建议:开展县域秸秆全量化利用、分区施策确定秸秆利用方向、加强政策工具集成创设、扩大试点示范引导。     

京津冀生态涵养区生态与产业协调发展影响因素分析

[目的]京津冀协同发展国家重大战略将冀北地区的发展确定为承担生态保障与水源涵养功能,文章基于长期以来该区域生态脆弱、经济落后的特征,研究了该生态涵养区生态与产业协调发展的影响因素,目的是为该区域生态建设与产业经济协调发展提供参考。[方法]设置了影响生态建设与产业经济协调发展的规模因素、经济因素、社会因素与政策因素四大类37个影响因素,借助于统计数据,在对数据进行标准化处理的基础上,应用计量经济模型,通过因子分析法将各个因素进行分类归纳为5个公因子,利用SPSS软件回归模拟结果显示各个因素对生态建设与产业经济协调发展的影响作用。[结果]将四大类通过因子分析法的主成分分析,应用计量经济模型模拟,拟合优度较高,影响因素通过分组具有较强的解释力,结果能够很好地反映这些影响因素对生态建设与产业经济协调发展的影响方向与影响程度。[结论]依据定性分析假设与计量模拟分析结果,针对存在的问题与发展机遇,提出对策建议:继续加强生态建设项目的推进、适度扩大产业经营规模、加大生态建设与产业发展投资力度、实施资源节约型生产创新模式以及健全和完善生态与经济协调发展制度。     

信息化对区域创新能力的影响——马太效应存在吗

分析了信息化影响区域创新能力的机理，从信息化资本水平、信息化产业水平和信息化应用水平来测度区域信息化水平，基于2003-2015 年中国29 个省区的面板数据，构建了双固定效应模型，采用LSDV 和GMM 法，实证检验了信息化对区域创新能力的影响以及两者关系的地区差异。结果显示：总体上信息化促进了中国区域创新能力提升，中西部地区信息化对区域创新能力的推动效用明显大于东部地区。这表明，信息化发展并未造成区域创新能力的马太效应。加快推进信息化战略不仅有助于进一步增强中国区域创新能力，而且对于缩小区域创新差距、促进区域协调发展亦有积极意义。     

ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION DYNAMICS: WHY IS THE INCOME SHARE OF TOP INCOME EARNERS ACYCLICAL OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE?

In the United States, the income share of the top 5% income group is acyclical over the business cycle. This study attempts to explain the cyclical behavior of the income distribution over the business cycle, particularly focusing on the top 5% income earners' share, using a heterogeneous agent model featuring a choice to become an entrepreneur. The model economy successfully reproduces the acyclical behavior of the income share of the top 5%. During expansions, relatively more people become entrepreneurs at the top, which offsets the decline in the income share of the high‐income earners from workers' side.     

试论全面践行中国共产党幸福观

中国共产党建党百年,为民谋幸福的初心和使命未曾动摇过.以中国共产党幸福观为指导思想,分析我党为民谋幸福的理论与观点在新时代的理论价值和实践意义,为新时代党领导人民建设美好生活提供坚定的思想指导和理论指引.在此基础上,进一步探索全面践行我党幸福观的发展对策,积极完善社会主义民主政治、经济生活、精神文明和生态文明,不断满足人民群众对政治、经济、文化、生态领域日益增长的美好需求以增强人民群众的获得感和幸福感,更好地建设社会主义现代化强国.     

Globalization and affordability of microfinance

We study how globalization can differentially affect financial inclusion through the lens of microfinance. Based on an institutional logics perspective, we argue that MFIs embody both social logic and market logic with regard to provision of affordable microfinance loans. Speicially, social logic is amplified by greater social globalization and the stronger presence of nonprofit organizations (NPOs) in the microfinance industry. In contrast, economic globalization catalyzes MFIs' market logic, leading to weaker or greater affordability of microfinance, depending on the relative strength of the profit-maximizing motive and real competition. We test these predictions by focusing on MFI interest-rate setting and using longitudinal data from 2030 MFI observations across 50 countries from 2002 to 2012. We find that country-level social globalization measure is negatively associated with the average MFI loan interest rates and that country-level economic globalization measure has an inverse U-shaped relationship with the average MFI loan interest rates. These results support our hypotheses and suggest a more nuanced view on how globalization affects affordability of microfinance.